A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
